Two days before the election and this is what some of the major periodicals are saying:

Senate: Robert Casey (D) v. Rick Santorum (R)

Congressional Quarterly: Leans Democratic

New York Times: Leaning Democratic

USA Today: Toss Up

Washington Post: Leans Democratic

My Prediction: Robert Casey (D)

1^st District: Robert Brady (D)

Congressional Quarterly: Safe Democratic

New York Times: Safe Democrat

USA Today: Likely Dem.

Washington Post: Safe Democrat

My Prediction: Robert Brady (D)

2^nd District: Chaka Fattah (D) v. Michael Gessner (R) v. David Baker (G)

Congressional Quarterly: Safe Democratic

New York Times: Safe Democrat

USA Today: Likely Dem.

Washington Post: Safe Democrat

My Prediction: Chaka Fattah (D)

3^rd District: Steven Porter (D) v. Philip English (R) v. Timothy Hagberg (C)

Congressional Quarterly: Safe Republican

New York Times: Safe Republican

USA Today: Likely Rep.

Washington Post: Safe Republican

My Prediction: Philip English (R)

4^th District: Jason Altmire (D) v. Melissa Hart (R)

Congressional Quarterly: Leans Republican

New York Times: Leaning Republican

USA Today: Leaning Rep.

Washington Post: Leans Republican

My Prediction: Melissa Hart (R)

5^th District: Donald Hillard (D) v. John Peterson (R)

Congressional Quarterly: Safe Republican

New York Times: Safe Republican

USA Today: Likely Rep.

Washington Post: Safe Republican

My Prediction: John Peterson (R)

6^th District: Lois Murphy (D) v. Jim Gerlach (R)

Congressional Quarterly: No Clear Favorite

New York Times: Toss Up

USA Today: Toss Up

Washington Post: No Clear Favorite

My Prediction: Lois Murphy (D)

7^th District: Joe Sestak (D) v. Curt Weldon (R)

Congressional Quarterly: Leans Democratic

New York Times: Leaning Democratic

USA Today: Toss Up

Washington Post: Leans Democratic

My Prediction: Joe Sestak (D)

8^th District: Patrick Murphy (D) v. Mike Fitzpatrick (R)

Congressional Quarterly: No Clear Favorite

New York Times: Leaning Republican

USA Today: Toss Up

Washington Post: No Clear Favorite

My Prediction: Mike Fitzpatrick (R)

9^th District: Bill Shuster (R)

Congressional Quarterly: Safe Republican

New York Times: Safe Republican

USA Today: Likely Rep.

Washington Post: Safe Republican

My Prediction: Bill Shuster (R)

10^th District: Christopher Carney (D) v. Don Sherwood (R)

Congressional Quarterly: Leans Democratic

New York Times: Leaning Democratic

USA Today: Toss Up

Washington Post: Leans Democratic

My Prediction: Christopher Carney (D)

11^th District: Paul Kanjorski (D) v. Joseph Leonardi (R)

Congressional Quarterly: Safe Democratic

New York Times: Safe Democrat

USA Today: Likely Dem.

Washington Post: Safe Democrat

My Prediction: Paul Kanjorski (D)

12^th District: John Murtha (D) v. Diana Irey (R)

Congressional Quarterly: Safe Democratic

New York Times: Safe Democrat

USA Today: Likely Dem.

Washington Post: Safe Democrat

My Prediction: John Murtha (D)

13^th District: Allyson Schwartz (D) v. Raj Peter Bhakta (R)

Congressional Quarterly: Safe Democratic

New York Times: Safe Democrat

USA Today: Likely Dem.

Washington Post: Safe Democrat

My Prediction: Allyson Schwartz (D)

14^th District: Mike Doyle (D) v. Titus North (G)

Congressional Quarterly: Safe Democratic

New York Times: Safe Democrat

USA Today: Likely Dem.

Washington Post: Safe Democrat

My Prediction: Mike Doyle (D)

15^th District: Charles Dertinger (D) v. Charles Dent (R) v. Greta Browne (G)

Congressional Quarterly: Safe Republican

New York Times: Safe Republican

USA Today: Likely Rep.

Washington Post: Safe Republican

My Prediction: Charles Dent (R)

16^th District: Lois Herr (D) v. Joseph Pitts (R) v. John Murphy (I)

Congressional Quarterly: Safe Republican

New York Times: Safe Republican

USA Today: Likely Rep.

Washington Post: Safe Republican

My Prediction: Joseph Pitts (R)

17^th District: Tim Holden (D) v. Matthew Wertz (R)

Congressional Quarterly: Safe Democratic

New York Times: Safe Democrat

USA Today: Likely Dem.

Washington Post: Safe Democrat

My Prediction: Tim Holden (D)

18^th District: Chad Kluko (D) v. Timothy Murphy (R)

Congressional Quarterly: Safe Republican

New York Times: Safe Republican

USA Today: Likely Rep.

Washington Post: Safe Republican

My Prediction: Timothy Murphy (R)

19^th District: Philip Avillo (D) v. Todd Platts (R) v. Derf Maitland (G)

Congressional Quarterly: Safe Republican

New York Times: Safe Republican

USA Today: Likely Rep.

Washington Post: Safe Republican

My Prediction: Todd Platts (R)

-Posted by Jon Hicks

New York Times: October 31, 2006

WASHINGTON, Oct. 30 — In November at the five-star Hotel Splendido overlooking the harbor in Portofino, a playground of the Italian rich, Representative Curt Weldon was the center of attention.

The second-ranking Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, Mr. Weldon was a main speaker at a conference sponsored in part by the Italian military giant Finmeccanica. At the gathering of Italian, British and American political leaders, Mr. Weldon, of Pennsylvania, spoke on behalf of Italian arms makers who were seeking a bigger share of Pentagon contracts.

Taxpayers paid for Mr. Weldon’s stay. He received a $1,153 daily expense allowance from the federal government and flew over on a military jet.

For Mr. Weldon, the conference was a victory lap. After several years of promoting Italian military contractors, the Italians had scored some big victories at the Pentagon. But Mr. Weldon’s efforts were equally beneficial for his district, his family, his friends and his campaign coffers.

Today, the Italians may well have second thoughts about their embrace of Mr. Weldon, who has represented his suburban Philadelphia district since 1987 and is now the subject of a federal investigation into possible influence peddling and, as a result, is in a tight re-election race.

The Justice Department is looking into whether he used his position to steer almost $1 million in consulting contracts from a Russian energy company and other Eastern European interests to a lobbying firm headed by his daughter Karen, 31. Her home and her office were searched two weeks ago by federal officials.

Law enforcement officials said they were examining a wide variety of Mr. Weldon’s connections with foreign companies, but they would not discuss whether the inquiry focused directly on Finmeccanica.

Mr. Weldon’s promotion of Finmeccanica, the largest military contractor in Italy, with annual revenue of $19 billion and 55,000 employees worldwide, has certainly helped the company as it sought to become as adept as its American counterparts in playing politics to gain lucrative Pentagon contracts.

Mr. Weldon, who has offices in Upper Darby and Bridgeport, Pa., declined to comment.

A Finmeccanica subsidiary, together with Lockheed Martin, upset an American competitor to land the $1.7 billion contract to build the next Marine One presidential helicopter. Other subsidiaries are now making headway in other Pentagon contests.

Mr. Weldon’s relationship with the Italians has been mutually beneficial. His daughter Kim, 29, a former social worker, was hired by AgustaWestland, the Finmeccanica subsidiary that won the Marine One contract, shortly after her father’s speech in Portofino. Kim Weldon’s work is to set up booths at trade shows and perform public relations.

AgustaWestland said the timing was coincidental. Ms. Weldon, through a company spokesman, declined to comment.

More than 10 Americans at Finmeccanica subsidiaries in the United States, along with their spouses, were among the biggest contributors to Mr. Weldon’s campaign in 2006. Their combined donations of $20,400 edged out donations from American giants like Boeing and Lockheed Martin.

A Finmeccanica subsidiary, Oto Melara, whose 76 Super Rapid gun Mr. Weldon has championed, last year hired his close friend Cecelia Grimes, a former real estate agent, and paid her $60,000 as a federal lobbyist. Ms. Grimes has no previous Washington lobbying experience and no Washington office.

She was put in touch with Oto Melara by Mr. Weldon’s chief of staff, Russ Caso. But, Ms. Grimes said in an interview, her employment was not because of Mr. Weldon.

“That’s ridiculous,” she said.

Ms. Grimes said she had introduced Oto Melara, which makes guns for ships and tanks, to companies in Mr. Weldon’s district.

Oto Melara defended its choice.

“We met her in a meeting in Philadelphia, and she made a good impression,” a spokesman for the company said in Il Sole 24 Ore, a Milan newspaper. “We felt she was the right person for us.”

Finmeccanica, partly owned by the Italian government, has also expanded within Mr. Weldon’s district and near it. In November, after winning the Marine One contract, AgustaWestland broke ground on a $27 million plant expansion in Northeast Philadelphia. In November 2004, Oto Melara chose Lester in the district over two others for its first major American site.

Oto Melara selected its site as Mr. Weldon asked Navy officials to reconsider a decision to put a rival company’s guns, instead of those from Oto Melara, on its new Littoral Combat Ships.

“Congressman Weldon took immediate interest in our issue,” Howard Goldberg, chief executive of Oto Melara North America, said in an interview with The Delaware County Daily Times in suburban Philadelphia.

Finmeccanica says that it has not been contacted by the Justice Department but that it is worried. In a letter last week to Il Sole 24 Ore, the company said about Mr. Weldon. “The connection between the investigations related to the person and Finmeccanica is harmful to the image of the Finmeccanica Group.”

The letter was signed by its media director, Simone Bemporad.

Even so, the company is not ready to cut its ties. A spokesman in New York, Gino Colangelo, said last week that “we have a warm relationship” with Mr. Weldon.

That relationship has its critics among Pentagon watchdog groups.

“Doesn’t the congressman have to register as a foreign agent?” asked Danielle Brian, executive director of the Project on Government Oversight, which studies Pentagon contracts. “It’s always disturbing when a member of Congress goes to bat for a particular company.

“It is even more alarming when the company is foreign. When it comes to national security, you want the best products, not products from companies with a relationship to a member of Congress.”

Mr. Caso, the congressman’s chief of staff, said Mr. Weldon’s relations with the Italian companies had been misinterpreted. He said Mr. Weldon had long been an advocate for insourcing, in which foreign military contractors set up plants in the United States and provide employment. In addition, Mr. Weldon has argued that the Pentagon should scour the world for the best weapons.

The congressman’s relationship with Finmeccanica grew out of this view, Mr. Caso said. For instance, Mr. Weldon has long been associated with Marine One. But he was far more interested in opening the competition to the Italians than in picking their helicopter, Mr. Caso said, adding that the Pentagon made the final decision.

“Curt Weldon was supportive of the Marine One bid, but in no way was he a key player in winning the competition,” said E. Beau Boulter, a former Republican House member from Texas who lobbies for Finmeccanica.

Mr. Boulter has earned $440,000 in the last three years from the company, and with his wife, has donated $11,400 to Mr. Weldon and his leadership political action committee in the last two years.

The argument that Mr. Weldon was motivated to help Finmeccanica to help his district or the Pentagon does not satisfy some Pentagon watchdogs.

“If anything, this all looks like quid pro quo,” said Melanie Sloan, executive director of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, which wrote a complaint to the Justice Department two years ago about Mr. Weldon. “Weldon will help out, but it will cost. He has no affinity for the Italians, but for what they will pay. They hired his daughter and his friend, and that is the deal.”

One favor that Mr. Weldon carried out for the Italians was to be the host at a conference here on March 30, 2004, at the request of the Italian Embassy. The Italians were promoting their Marine One bid and Finmeccanica’s C-27J cargo plane as well as seeking more work from the Joint Strike Fighter program.

The Italian delegation included the chief executive of Finmeccanica, Pierfrancesco Guarguaglini, and top military officials. Mr. Weldon helped arrange for them to meet at the Rayburn House Office Building with Michael W. Wynne, who was the top weapons buyer at the Pentagon, and Douglas J. Feith, under secretary of defense for policy.

Also brought in were Harry C. Stonecipher and Vance D. Coffman, then chief executives of Boeing and Lockheed, respectively, two companies in positions to form partnerships and subcontracting deals with Italian companies.

“The Italian Embassy came to us,” Mr. Caso, the Weldon aide, said. “They were upset some of their contractors were not getting enough work.”

On a more personal level, AgustaWestland, the helicopter subsidiary, said it had not sought out Kim Weldon. Mr. Colangelo, its spokesman, said she had answered an online employment advertisement.

Ms. Weldon, who had run a welcome center for immigrants in her father’s district, was selected over five or six other applicants, Mr. Colangelo said, adding, “She’s one of our best employees.” The company required her to agree to not lobby her father or other officials.

“AgustaWestland hired Kim Weldon at the end of a very competitive process,” Mr. Bemporad of Finmeccanica wrote to Il Sole 24 Ore. “Furthermore, the company adopted additional precautions — following the same guidelines used by other companies in the United States in these situations — limiting the work assigned to Ms. Weldon in an effort to prevent any apparent or real conflict of interest.”

-Submitted by Jon Hicks

The demographics have changed in recent years in the seventh district. This mostly suburban (Philadelphia) region has become more “democrat friendly” giving a big lead to Joe Sestak who is running as a democrat. This election was not looking good for Mr. Weldon (a 10-term incumbent,) as they were, before this story hit the news stands. Being one week before the election it could be said that the 7th district will most definitely be lost to the Democrats.

New York Times: October 31, 2006

PITTSBURGH, Oct. 27 — There is no better snapshot of the brutal political climate facing many Republicans in these final days than this: Senator Rick Santorum, the third-ranking Republican in the Senate, stubbornly behind in the polls, warning with anger and growing frustration that voters should not — must not, for their own good — reject him for his Democratic opponent, Bob Casey, the state treasurer.

Assailing Mr. Casey’s national security credentials, the Santorum campaign has run a television commercial that shows a mushroom cloud, missiles streaking through the air and the faces of North Korean, Iranian and terrorist leaders. It concludes, “We just can’t take a chance on Bob Casey.” (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CzthL0ATSQg)
Mr. Santorum began the final stretch of his campaign with a series of speeches on “The Gathering Storm,” offering a dark, Churchillian vision of the threats facing the United States — like the threats, he said, that faced England in the years leading up to World War II.

But Mr. Santorum all but acknowledges that the national security issues that proved such a fundamental strength for the Republicans in 2002 and 2004 are far riskier for his party this year.

“People ask me, ‘Why are you giving a major foreign-policy address two weeks before your election? Don’t you realize this war is not popular?’ ” he said Friday. But he plowed forward, to an audience of about 75 in a Holiday Inn in the western Pennsylvania city of Johnstown, one of several stops on his tour.

The political world has changed fundamentally for Mr. Santorum, who rode an anti-establishment wave into the Senate in 1994 but is now at risk of being swept out of office by a very different wave. He has spent millions, campaigned hard, attacked his Democratic opponent on every imaginable front, closing with what Democrats assert is “a campaign of fear and smear.” But Mr. Santorum has remained consistently behind in the public polls.

He speaks of Mr. Casey with barely disguised disdain, as if he cannot imagine the possibility of losing to the Democrat who, he asserts, “is simply reading from the bullet points of Howard Dean.”

Mr. Santorum’s advisers blame the national climate for his difficulties; in a state like Pennsylvania, which often leans Democratic, the plummeting popularity of President Bush and the Republican-led Congress was bound to hit hard. In fact, several Republican House incumbents [Jim Gerlach (6th), Meslissa Hart (4th), Don Sherwood (10th), Curt Weldonare (7th), and Mike Fitzpatrick (8th)] also fighting for their political lives in Pennsylvania this year.

“Environmentally, this is probably the toughest year I’ve ever seen,” said John Brabender, a top Santorum adviser.

But Mr. Santorum’s own personality and political style have also played a role, political strategists and analysts say. Over the past two years, he aggressively intervened in the right-to-die case of Terri Schiavo and jumped into debates on flashpoint issues like the Roman Catholic Church’s sex abuse scandal and same-sex marriage. Along with his staunchly conservative voting record, that took a toll, reflected in what polls show as his continued difficulty among moderate suburbanites outside Philadelphia.

At the same time, a controversy over his residency — his family lives much of the year in Virginia — is widely blamed for his sagging support in the polls in western Pennsylvania, where he began his political career. He won a House seat in 1990 with a campaign that lambasted the Democratic incumbent for living in Virginia.

As he campaigned across western Pennsylvania, Mr. Santorum said he “absolutely” felt he had time to turn the race around, that voters would, in the end, recognize what he asserted was a clear gap in competence between him and Mr. Casey. Mr. Brabender, who dismissed the public polls, said he believed that the Santorum campaign could be five or six points behind on Election Day and still win through their superior turnout operation.

Jay Reiff, Mr. Casey’s campaign manager, countered, “First of all, it’s not a single-digit race. And secondly, the intensity is not on Santorum’s side.”

Mr. Santorum opened new lines of attack in recent days, including one over Mr. Casey’s management of state pension fund investments.

But Democrats can taste victory. At a Casey rally at the University of Pittsburgh Friday afternoon, college Democrats roared as Representative Mike Doyle, Democrat of Pennsylvania, declared, “In 11 days, we’re going to change America!”

Mr. Casey proceeded to give a stump speech aimed squarely at the bread-and-butter issues of the middle class, like affordable health insurance, universal pre-school access, assistance for college tuition, and the general promise of “a new direction.” He mocked Mr. Santorum as a rubber stamp for the Bush administration who had defended Mr. Bush and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld instead of asking hard questions about the war in Iraq.

It was not a dazzling performance, but it was disciplined and firmly on message, and that is another explanation for Mr. Santorum’s difficulties. From the beginning of this race, 20 months ago, the Democrats have run a careful, pragmatic campaign. Democratic leaders like Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, recruited Mr. Casey to run on the grounds that as an experienced statewide candidate, the son of a popular former governor, he was the strongest candidate the party could field.

From a strategic standpoint, Mr. Casey’s conservatism on social issues — he opposes abortion rights — was expected to help the party with more traditional voters. In an interview, Mr. Casey, a Roman Catholic like Mr. Santorum, said he worked hard to signal that he wanted a conversation with “people of faith.”

He spoke at Catholic University this fall over the objection of conservatives who did not want him invited there, met with evangelical Christians on global warming and closes his stump speech these days with a reflection that “your burdens can become your blessings.”

“Too often Democrats have avoided talking about faith — the national party has had the perception, and sometimes it’s a perception we’ve fostered or amplified — that people of faith are not part of a coalition we want to build,” said Mr. Casey, a soft-spoken man, who often talks about the importance of his service as a Jesuit volunteer in an urban school. “But you can build bridges.”

At the same time, the polls and the Democratic primary showed that Mr. Casey was holding his party’s liberal base, even among those who disagree with him on abortion; opposition to Mr. Santorum proved a powerful unifying force among Democrats. And while the Santorum campaign raised more funds than the Casey campaign, the last fund-raising report showed Mr. Casey held a slim advantage in cash-on-hand for the final stretch.

Throughout the year, the Santorum campaign accused Mr. Casey of lacking ideas, ducking debates and failing to understand the nuances of foreign policy.

By the end of the campaign, an extraordinarily long campaign, by Senate standards, the personal animus between the two men was striking.

In a recent debate in Philadelphia, Mr. Santorum told voters: “I had to earn this job. It’s not a job I inherited because of my last name.”

Moments later, when reporters pressed Mr. Casey about the possibility of more debates, he shot back: “We’ve spent enough time together, the two of us. Let’s go meet the voters. I’ll see him at the finish line.”

-Posted by Jon Hicks

The latest poll (Phillidaphia Inquirer Oct 16-25) has Casey with a 16 point lead over Santorum with a margin of error of about 3.8 percent.  This is a 5 point gain for Mr. Casey from a previous poll a month ago from the same pollster.  Reasons for this may include that October has become one of the bloodiest months in the war (101 US forces dead as of Oct 30) which Senator Santorum is a staunch supporter of.  Time will tell if this is true, with the election being exactly one week from today; giving both candidates little hope that they will be able to sway the undecided vote one way or the other (the undecided vote in the Inquirer poll was 6 percent.)  

We all know that this election has gotten very negative in the past few weeks, but even more so in this Pennsylvania election. Check out this clip from the Senatorial debate where things get way out of hand. The political ads also seems to attack the character’s of the other candidate; more so then they do in some of the other campaigns going around the country.

CNET News.com Politics Blog
October 18, 2006 7:59 AM PDT
Identify this quotation: “As the hobbits are going up Mount Doom, the Eye of Mordor is being drawn somewhere else…It’s being drawn to Iraq, and it’s not being drawn to the U.S.”

No, it isn’t from some late-night talk show host trying to come up with a catchy analogy for the Iraq war. They are the words of Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), from an interview with the Bucks County Courier Times.

Santorum followed up the metaphor with the justification that he loves J.R.R. Tolkien’s “Lord of the Rings” series and that he reads the books to his children. But comparing Iraq to the fictional Mount Doom? It might not be as bad as comparing the Internet to a series of tubes, but still, what was he thinking?

Maybe Santorum really is a Tolkien fan, though he doesn’t seem to have made any prior hints at geekdom. A conservative senator who is currently embroiled in a tough re-election race, he is best-known for controversial statements about homosexuality and whether women should work outside the home. If he’s a nerd, he sure hasn’t shown it much.

My guess is that this is a strategic move. Comedy Central’s “The Colbert Report,” after all, has recently popularized the image of the archconservative geek. Host Stephen Colbert comically rails against liberals and recently kicked off the 2006 edition of his “War on the War on Christmas,” but at the same time, he extolled the virtues of Wikipedia and inspired many a “Star Wars” fanatic with his Green Screen Challenge.

If Santorum is trying to construct himself as a similar right-wing nerd, it could be either laughable or brilliant.

Besides, a new Rasmussen poll shows that Santorum’s opponent, Bob Casey, is apparently clobbering the senator’s chances of re-election. Whether it comes across as dumb or endearing, Santorum’s recent stab at unveiling his inner geek probably won’t hurt.

Posted by Caroline McCarthy

With polls reflecting that Senator Santorum’s chances of re-election are getting slimmer, this could be an intelligent move to make himself seem a bit more human by both relating his political beliefs to a familiar story and by looking a bit geeky and creating an opportunity to poke fun at himself. Either way, it appears as though his move was a good one, getting his name around on both mainstream news and the surprisingly influential comedy central programs: “The Daily Show” and “The Colbert Report”.

What remains to be seen is whether or not this tactic will have any effect on Santorum’s polling and/or re-election chances. He can only hope that the prospective voter that he appears to target will be willing to leave the LAN party in mom and dad’s basement to vote.

-Phil

The Philadelphia Inquirer

FBI agents investigating U.S. Rep. Curt Weldon (R., Pa.) conducted six raids this morning – including at the homes of his daughter and a longtime friend.

In all, agents executed four search warrants in the Philadelphia area and two in Jacksonville, Fla., officials said.

In Center City, agents searched the law office of John Gallagher, a Weldon friend who has conducted extensive business in Russia and former Soviet Republics.

In Media, agents searched the offices of the public relations firm formed by Weldon’s longtime friend Charles P. Sexton Jr., and the congressman’s daughter, Karen.

Sexton and Karen Weldon formed Solutions North America in 2002, and won $1 million in contracts from two Russian energy firms and a Serbian family with ties to Slobodan Milosevic.

FBI agents in Jacksonville, Fla., raided the office of one of the Russian energy firms, Itera, and a private residence whose connection to the investigation was not disclosed.

The Philadelphia raids began early this morning. Shortly before noon, FBI agents left Karen Weldon’s three-story brick house on Queen Street in Philadelphia carrying armfuls of boxes.

A government car pulled into the alley to the back door of the house and loaded boxes into it. Three agents standing in an alley – members of the FBI’s public corruption squad – declined to identify themselves.

“I can confirm that we conducted a number of searches regarding an ongoing investigation,” said FBI agent Jerri Williams, a spokeswoman in Philadelphia. “Details regarding those investigations cannot be provided because the accompanying affidavit is sealed.”

In Delaware County, FBI agents had blocked off Kelli Lane leading to Sexton’s Springfield home, and were removing at least one box and a bag of material from his home late this morning. Sexton is a longtime ally of Weldon’s and has been a power in Delaware County GOP politics for more than three decades.

The raids came three days after news broke that the FBI was investigating whether the Delaware County congressman used his influence to help his daughter, a registered lobbyist, win consulting contracts.

At an event earlier today at Philadelphia International Airport to discuss airport noise, Weldon said the investigation was politically motivated – blaming a complaint filed by Melanie Sloan, director of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington.

“She is the only one I know of who went to the Justice Department and asked for an investigation,” Weldon said. “I know that because I have her letter.”

He added, “I haven’t helped get my daughter anything.”

Weldon, who is involved in a tight race for reelection, has said that he has done nothing wrong.

The $1 million contract under investigation was first reported in 2004 by the Los Angeles Times. Sources said the FBI and Justice Department investigation was based on the Times story.

The Inquirer reported in 2004 that Weldon had lobbied federal officials on behalf of Itera, the huge and controversial Russian natural gas company. Weldon also complained to Karl Rove, President Bush’s top political adviser, about Itera’s treatment by the U.S. Trade and Development Agency.

Itera paid $500,000 to Karen Weldon and Sexton’s firm. The contract was signed Sept. 30, 2002, six days after the congressman helped arrange a dinner at the Library of Congress to honor Itera and Igor Makarov, the firm’s chief executive officer.

About noon today, a group of 17 protesters arrived outside Weldon’s district office in Upper Darby, carrying signs and the kind of foam hands usually seen at sporting events to proclaim “Number One.” But these rose-colored hands said “Caught Red-Handed.”

“This is the first time I’ve come out and done something like this,” said Judy Voet of Rose Valley. “This Congress is just so corrupt.”

Most of the protesters were Democrats, but they said they were not involved in the campaign of Weldon’s opponent, Joe Sestak, and they included at least one Republican, Chuck Ries of Havertown.

“I don’t know what to believe anymore, they lie so much,” said Ries, holding a sign linking Weldon to current and former Republican colleagues Tom DeLay, Mark Foley and Bob Ney – all of whom have been embroiled in career-ending scandals.

-Submitted by Jon Hicks

This most recent school shooting has been compared to the devastation caused by Columbine and it has brought incredibly violent heartless crime back to the national spotlight. Even more so, it has shown us the character and strategies of the two remaining Senate nominees for Pennsylvania. Bob Casey canceled an event that would have been held last Monday out of respect for the people in the small town of Nickel Mines. Mr. Casey has been running on a very low-profile campaign; hoping to take advantage of the low approval rating of the president and numerous Republican scandals (most recently Mark Foley) that have come to the national stage in the past year or so. Rick Santorum has criticized Mr. Casey for this, but has yet to see spectacular results with the most recent poll (Mason-Dixon Sept. 22-26) giving Mr. Casey nine points over the incumbent.

Carl Romanelli, the Green Party candidate, is still fighting for an appeal to get his name put back onto the ballot and if he is successful it will likely take away some points from Mr. Casey. It is also important to look at the financial capabilities of both candidates. Both, have more then substantial campaign funds; Mr. Santorum with about nine and half million and Mr. Casey with about five million dollars to spend on advertising and other campaign expenditures in the next four weeks before the election. Even with his advantage in cash on hand, it seems that it will take a lot for Mr. Santorum to keep his seat in the senate, but it should be noted that elections often come down to what happens in that last week so we will see what happens between now and then.

-Jon Hicks

TRIBUNE-REVIEW
Tuesday, October 3, 2006

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich hopes Pennsylvania voters look beyond “the 30-second attack ads” and the Washington scandal of the day when electing a senator Nov. 7.
“I believe (Rick Santorum’s) race is the most important U.S. Senate race in the country this year. He’s a principled person who realizes what the stakes are in the world,” Gingrich said Monday during a fundraising stop in Hempfield Township for the incumbent Republican senator from Penn Hills, Allegheny County.

Gingrich said Santorum’s quick ascension to the third-ranked party leadership post in the Senate indicates his knowledge and grasp of the complicated world issues facing the United States. He claimed Santorum’s Democratic challenger, state Treasurer Bob Casey, is inexperienced.

“Bob Casey is just a political figurehead who only hopes to hide long enough to become a U.S. senator,” Gingrich said.

The former Georgia congressman said Santorum has taken “a beating” from the mainstream media and various special-interest groups because he is not afraid to fight for issues he believes in.
Gingrich pointed at the war on terror as an example.

“The message is: If there is a terrorist attack who do you want representing you … Rick Santorum or Bob Casey?” he said.

“If people want Iran to control the Persian Gulf region, then they should vote for Robert Casey. If they want to stop Iran and have someone representing them who will stand up to Iran, then they should vote for Rick Santorum,” Gingrich said.

“There are people out there throughout the world who want to kill us because we’re Americans. These are the most complex times in the United States since April 1861,” the start of the Civil War, Gingrich said.

Gingrich conceded national events last week — including the resignation of U.S. Rep. Mark Foley, a Florida Republican, for sending inappropriate e-mail messages to teenage, male Congressional pages, and the release of Washington Post reporter Bob Woodward’s book “State of Denial” — made the terrain more difficult for GOP candidates.

But Gingrich claimed many of the daily Washington scandals that evoke vehement partisan bickering pale when compared as a whole to the challenges facing the nation.

“It’s like people bickering over a bridge game on the Titanic … meanwhile there’s an iceberg right there,” he said.

As for questions over the Republican House leadership’s handling of the Foley affair, Gingrich said he has seen no evidence they were attempting to hide it.

“Based on what I’ve read, from the information they had available at the time, and with the (page’s parents) not wanting to pursue it at that time, I believe it will turn out it was handled properly,” Gingrich said.

“I believe if they would have known the extent of the messages, they would have immediately moved to expel (Foley),” he said.

As for Woodward’s book, which criticizes the Bush administration’s handling of the Iraq war, Gingrich conceded the timing of its release “is a major asset to the Democratic Party.”

About 60 people attended the fundraiser sans Santorum at the residence of Tom and Kim Ward, of Hempfield Township. Kim Ward is a township supervisor and heads Santorum’s campaign in southwestern Pennsylvania.

After departing Westmoreland County, Gingrich, who is contemplating a 2008 presidential bid, flew to Erie to campaign for another Republican, U.S. Rep. Phil English, and traveled later yesterday to Harrisburg for another Santorum event. Santorum was campaigning yesterday in the Philadelphia area, according to staff members.

It’s pretty telling to see a politician with such status in the republican party focusing so much effort to go to bat for an incumbent in the state of Pennsylvania. In a country with a 95% incumbent return rate it would seem as though the G.O.P. realizes how close to defeat Rick Santorum is coming. It is of particular interest in this case that Gingrich diverts the attention in his comments back to the war on terror, claiming that challenger Bob Casey isn’t experienced enough to make the right decisions for the country when it comes to issues like security and a possible war in Iran. Also of particular interest is the reference that Gingrich makes, comparing the current state of the country to the state of the country in 1861, at the beginning of the civil war. Could this reference be meant to imply that it was a strong Republican leader that led the country out of said war? Only time will tell.

Another interesting point that this article raises are the effects that the Foley scandal and upcoming book “State of Denial” may have on the races in Pennsylvania. The interesting aspect of this from my point of view is that the handling of a matter involving an out of state representative from a different house of congress may have an effect on the outcome of PA’s senatorial race. This type of circumstance totally reinforces the idea that Americans are voting more and more on the basis of party politics than the personal politics of individual politicians.

-Phil

In the race for the Sixth District seat, it appears trash may be the central issue upon which the two contenders will debate. It was noted in Sept. 20, 2006′s issue of the Philadelphia Inquirer, in an article by Nancy Peterson, that 30% of the incumbent’s (Rep. Jim Gerlach) votes came from Reading. In this Berks County city, the major issue that has arisen lately is whether or not they will continue to pay an outside source to collect the city’s garbage. An alternative has been proposed that would use the taxpayers’ money to support a city-run waste management program. It will be interesting to see which candidate can utilize this topic and break the dead heat.

Speaking of garbage, a website has recently been launched trashing incumbent State Rep. Daylin Leach. This site was launched by a concerned, and registered Republican, mother in regard to a blog set up by the Democrat. It was created under an alias and contained graphic jokes, amongst other things, that many would deem inappropriate. It remains to be seen whether or not this re-surfaced issue (blog was discovered in Sept. of 2005 by the Philadelphia Inquirer) will have an effect on the race for the 149th District seat, or will just be nothing more than a small ripple.

-Tim

An endangered Republican like Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania could always comfort himself with this: The political winds may be blowing the Democrats’ way this year, but the Republicans retain some formidable structural advantages.

Like money: Mr. Santorum, the third-ranking Republican in the Senate leadership, has had a significant fund-raising advantage over his Democratic challenger, State Treasurer Bob Casey, which means more money for television advertising.

Or the Republicans’ near-legendary voter turnout operation: the 72-hour program, tested and proven (to the Democrats’ despair) in the 2002 and 2004 elections, which moved coordinators into Pennsylvania more than a year ago to prepare for Nov. 7.

As the midterm campaign enters its final six weeks, these Republican fortifications will be tested around the country, but arguably nowhere as much as in Pennsylvania. Mr. Santorum has lagged behind Mr. Casey in opinion polls for nearly a year now, at times by double digits; his seat has become the Democrats’ best hope for one of the six seats they need to regain a Senate majority.

Here in Pennsylvania, with every new poll, the question arises: Can Mr. Santorum, with all his resources, change the dynamics of this race?

So far, the answer is not fundamentally. One of the latest independent surveys, the Keystone Poll released last week, showed Mr. Casey retaining the lead, with the support of 45 percent of registered voters, to Mr. Santorum’s 38 percent. The race, experts say, has tightened since spring, and Mr. Casey’s unfavorable ratings have climbed.

But G. Terry Madonna, who heads the Keystone Poll at Franklin & Marshall College, noted that Mr. Santorum had been unable, so far, to improve his own standing significantly.

“He gets, on average, about 40 percent of the voters,” Mr. Madonna said. “He’s been able to knock Casey down just a tad, but he’s been unable to go up himself.”

The Keystone Poll showed Mr. Santorum still lagging significantly behind Mr. Casey in the Philadelphia suburbs, a critical battleground. A poll for The Philadelphia Inquirer, released yesterday, showed Mr. Casey with a 10-point lead.

Neil Newhouse, Mr. Santorum’s pollster, counters that the Republicans are clearly gaining ground — and have the time and the resources to gain more. “It’s a single-digit race,” Mr. Newhouse said. “And he has a financial advantage going into the last six weeks of this race. Anybody who would, at this point of the campaign, count him out, I think is making a serious mistake.”

Still, Mr. Madonna and other experts say the latest poll ratings are noteworthy because Mr. Santorum has already run substantial television advertising. According to an analysis of data gathered by the Campaign Media Analysis Group, the Santorum campaign and supporting groups overwhelmingly outspent the Casey forces in television advertising between late May and mid-September.

Mr. Santorum has run some positive commercials — former Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani of New York praises him in the latest — but the advertising wars have grown increasingly harsh in recent weeks. Like other endangered Republicans this year, who are fighting general discontent with the Bush administration and a Republican-controlled Congress, Mr. Santorum is trying to turn this race into a choice, not a referendum. And he needs to portray Mr. Casey — still undefined to many Pennsylvanians — as an unacceptable choice.

One of the most contentious Santorum advertisements opens in a room that is literally smoke-filled, with a group of cigar-smoking men (who are actors) playing cards, and clearly up to no good.

“Meet Bob Casey’s campaign team,” the announcer intones, citing unnamed developers and businessmen who have contributed to Mr. Casey and are now under investigation. Only when the camera pans back is it clear where the men are meeting — behind bars.

The advertisement was described as misleading by Factcheck.org, the nonpartisan monitor at the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania, which noted that none of the men cited currently work for Mr. Casey, and that some had contributed, in past campaigns, not only to Mr. Casey, but also to Mr. Santorum.

Mr. Casey, in an interview, described the advertisement as a sign of “desperation” in his opponent. “It sent me a real signal that he feels he’s in trouble, that he can’t win this on his record or on his vision for the future,” Mr. Casey said.

Mr. Santorum’s advisers defend their advertising and say they plan more spots on Mr. Casey’s donors and his ethics, as well as his rapid ascent through elective offices. “We’re just starting to paint a picture for people of the Bob Casey they need to know about,” said John Brabender, Mr. Santorum’s media adviser.

The Casey campaign is running tough spots of its own. One recent advertisement featured a woman taking Mr. Santorum to task for suggesting, in his book “It Takes a Family,” last year, that in some families both parents work because of choice, not necessity. “He doesn’t understand how hard it is in order to make ends meet,” says the woman, Debbie Balcik, talking directly into the camera, explaining her anger. “I’m not like a U.S. senator. I can’t vote my own pay raise.”

Another focuses on Mr. Santorum’s voting record — or, as the announcer puts it, “a 98 percent voting record with George Bush” and “a record that hurts Pennsylvania.”

The air war has only recently been fully engaged in Philadelphia, the most expensive market in the state and one that reaches 40 percent of the voting-age population. Casey campaign officials said they husbanded their money this summer, and did not try to match the Santorum campaign’s spending, so that they could go toe to toe with the Republicans this fall.

“Did the race tighten over the time frame when Santorum and the Republicans were exploiting their cash-on-hand advantage? Yeah,” said Jay Reiff, Mr. Casey’s campaign manager. “But not now. We can match them now going down to the wire.”

They recently got some help from Gov. Edward G. Rendell, the Democrat who recruited Mr. Casey to enter the Senate race. Far ahead in his own race for re-election, Mr. Rendell announced in recent days that he was raising money to help Mr. Casey keep pace.

Republicans, in the end, are hoping to make the Senate race tight enough that a superior turnout operation can make the difference. The state has been a high priority with the national party from the start, given the challenge to Mr. Santorum and the competitive races facing several Republican House members there. Republicans are keenly aware of the challenge they face in the Philadelphia suburban counties, particularly with Mr. Rendell on the ticket.

“We have a Democratic governor running who’s good at this,” said Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, alluding to Mr. Rendell’s prowess at turnout. “And we’ve been preparing for the past 16 months.”

Many Democrats also suggest that the sheer intensity of their voters will go a long way toward matching the Republicans’ structural advantage. “People are anxious to vote, and they’re anxious to vote for change,” Mr. Casey said. “They know a good turnout and a good vote means we can chart a different course.” He added, “The intensity is like none I’ve ever seen in our state.”

 -Jon Hicks